Polls have been all over the place, so it’s hard to take any of them seriously. But if you want to look at the battleground states, this latest poll from Emerson is encouraging, if you are a Trump supporter. Ohio, a must win for Trump is now tied, while Clinton’s massive leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania has almost all faded away as polls tighten.
| Ohio tied, Pennsylvania and Michigan polls tighten |
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Three new Emerson College polls show a tight race shaping up between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump in the key Rust Belt States of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The two are deadlocked at 43% in Ohio. Clinton leads by three points in Pennsylvania (46% to 43%) and by five in Michigan (45% to 40%). The Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson garners 7% of the vote in Pennsylvania and Michigan and 10% in Ohio. Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2% of the vote in Ohio and Pennsylvania and 3% in Michigan. Each poll consisted of 800 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points…
There is a significant gender gap, with women breaking for Clinton by 26 points in Michigan (56% to 30%), 15 points in Pennsylvania (53% to 38%) and 13 points in Ohio (51% to 38%). In all three states, 49% of men plan to vote for Trump whereas only 33% of women support him in Ohio and Michigan and 38% in Pennsylvania.
Younger voters favor Clinton over Trump in Ohio (by 50% to 32%) and Pennsylvania (42% to 39%). But in Michigan, where young people helped Bernie Sanders stage an upset over Clinton in the Democratic primary, Trump leads 45% to 33% among those 18-34. Both candidates are receiving about 80% of their party vote. However, Independents are consistently lining up for Trump. In Ohio his edge with Independents is 47% to 30% for Clinton, in Michigan it’s 39% to 38% and in Pennsylvania 43% to 37%.