Well here we are. Election day in South Carolina and caucus day for the Democrats in Nevada. In South Carolina there have been three recent polls showing Donald Trump’s one time double digit lead shrink to under 10%. Are they accurate? Other polls show Trump comfortably winning by him with leads of 17 points and 15 points over the second place finisher.
One trend that has developed in these polls is that Marco Rubio had tied or surpassed Cruz for second place in some of these polls. From Real Clear Politics, these are the most recent polls for South Carolina released one day ahead of the election:
| Three polls show Trump lead under 10% in South Carolina |
|---|
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South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary SC House GOP Trump 34, Cruz 19, Rubio 18, Bush 12, Kasich 8, Carson 5 Trump +15
South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Clemson Trump 28, Cruz 19, Rubio 15, Bush 10, Kasich 9, Carson 6 Trump +9
South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Augusta Chronicle Trump 27, Cruz 19, Rubio 24, Bush 11, Kasich 7, Carson 8 Trump +3
South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Emerson Trump 36, Cruz 18, Rubio 19, Bush 10, Kasich 10, Carson 6 Trump +17
South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary NBC/WSJ/Marist Trump 28, Cruz 23, Rubio 15, Bush 13, Kasich 9, Carson 9 Trump +5
Which will be most accurate?
As far as the Democrat caucus, there has been little to no public polling out of that state. This could only mean Hillary Clinton is in deep trouble in Nevada and may need six straight coin tosses to get the extra delegate out of Nevada.