An interesting poll out of leftist NBC shows Ted Cruz beating Donald Trump for the first time (in any poll). The poll, which may be an outlier shows Ted Cruz at 28% and Trump at 26%. Last month, Trump held a 13-point lead over Cruz, 33 percent to 20 percent. Is this why Trump was so nutty at the last debate? Or is it an outlier. Based on every other poll I’ve seen, i’d say it’s probably an outlier.
| Outlier? Cruz now ahead of Trump nationally NBC poll |
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The results from the poll — conducted after Trump’s victory in New Hampshire and Saturday’s GOP debate in South Carolina — are a significant reversal from last month, when Trump held a 13-point lead over Cruz, 33 percent to 20 percent.
Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart and his firm Hart Research Associates, says Trump’s drop could signal being “right on top of a shift in the campaign.”
“When you see a number this different, it means you might be right on top of a shift in the campaign. What you don’t know yet is if the change is going to take place or if it is a momentary ‘pause’ before the numbers snap back into place,” he said.
McInturff added, “So, one poll post-Saturday debate can only reflect there may have been a ‘pause’ as Republican voters take another look at Trump. This happened earlier this summer and he bounced back stronger. We will have to wait this time and see what voters decide.”
This poll comes after other surveys — both nationally and in South Carolina, the site of Saturday’s next Republican contest — show Trump with a commanding lead. But some of those weren’t conducted entirely after the last debate like the NBC/WSJ poll.