You’ve already had just a sampling of authortarian socialist/communist rule if your state has been locked down and you have no opening in sight. Well guess what? If left wing hacks like writers at Bloomberg get there way, this way of life will continue not just through the rest of this year, but through 2024 at least! If the people are stupid enough to vote for Democrats in November, get ready for this to happen. Just remember though, it’s “for your safety” or something.
| Bloomberg hack fantasizes about being stuck at home through 2024 |
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It is a little depressing, stuck at home, to read scientists estimating what may happen with the epidemic in 2021, 2022 and even 2024. But there are good reasons to question the more optimistic forecasts for when it may be safe to end the lockdowns. Models based on simulations of the infection’s dynamics foresee huge uncertainties and risks ahead.
Among the optimistic projections are those from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, cited even by the White House. These suggest safe dates for various U.S. states to begin reopening: May 28 for New York, for example, and June 27 for Georgia. These are based on statistical curve-fitting to data and project when the level of infections may drop to one per 1 million people. Graphs with reassuring downward sloping lines accompany the predictions.
Unfortunately, this picture is almost certainly too optimistic, because the basic model assumes that infection numbers will fall rapidly once reaching their peak. This doesn’t come from the data. The optimistic downward projection is an artifact of the mathematical framework used, which isn’t really designed for projection, as the researchers acknowledge.
There is a similar but improved statistical model that more accurately reflects the great uncertainties in these projections. But it still just assumes a rapid decay in numbers following the peak, and the researchers behind it stress it shouldn’t be used to forecast beyond two to three weeks. Other models based on fitting data with actual simulations of disease dynamics aren’t so optimistic. For example, one suggests that the rate of infections in Georgia may in fact double by early August following the state’s partial reopening and relaxation of distancing rules.