Nate Silver’s 538 which is called one of the most accurate polling outfits around is predicting that Ted Cruz will beat Donald Trump tonight in Wisconsin by 8 percentage points. This despite the most recent poll that showed Trump with a ten point lead over Cruz. How accurate will 538 be? Well, they completely botched Michigan for Democrats, giving Hillary Clinton a 90% chance of beating the Communist.
Polls close at 8pm Wisconsin time which means we are still several hours away from getting the first results. Let’s see how accurate 538 is for Wisconsin. If Cruz does in fact beat Trump by 8 percentage points, he will like sweep all congressional districts taking all 42 delegates.
| 538’s final Wisconsin forecast: Cruz 42% Trump 34% |
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But this is also an open primary, meaning Marxist Democrats could vote and influence the results. Trump does better in open primaries while Cruz does better in closed primaries.