Joni Ernest continues to castrate Democrat pig Bruce Braley in the polls. So much so, that Larry Sabato and his ‘crystal ball’ have moved this race from toss-up to Lean Republican. Sabato always tried to portray himself as non-partisan, but this is the same man who wrote a back about Democrat JFK, so I have my doubts about his so called non-bias. Sabato also whines about Ernest’s ‘folksiness’ and ‘conservative parts’ of her rhetoric. News flash Larry, Joni Ernest is a conservative, that’s why she’s beating a left wing liberal extremist in the polls in Iowa in the first place.
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| Iowa Senate moves from Toss-up to Lean Republican according to Larry Sabato crystal ball |
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The race between Rep. Bruce Braley (D) and state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has appeared to be a Toss-up for months, with a number of quality polls showing the candidates locked at about even. But that changed over the past few weeks, at least in the public polling. First, Quinnipiac showed Ernst up 50%-44% in mid-September, a poll that seemed like a big outlier at the time. But that finding was seconded over the weekend by the Des Moines Register poll, the gold standard of Iowa polling. Ernst was up six in that poll, too, although there were more undecideds: 44%-38%.
We have long thought that Ernst’s folksiness could pay off here if Democratic attacks on some of the more conservative parts of her rhetoric and record did not pan out. With a month to go, she seems to be staying out of trouble, and the Republican lean of this year’s midterm combined with Braley’s much-derided campaign suggests to us that Ernst really is leading here: We’re moving the Iowa Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Republican.